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ANSWER - Hand Of The Week - 01/12/03
This hand presents an interesting scenario. North/South are in great shape and in second seat, North bids an uninvited nil. Assuming North is a strong player, his bid represents an easy nil. South should have very little to worry about.
At first glance, it seems that South's bid is pretty much meaningless, but there is some strategy he can force into the game. With 443 points, all North and South need is 60 points for the win. Even if South bids 4 and is set by East/West, his team will win as long as the nil is covered. If South bids 4 it sets the table to a total 12 bid and leaves very little room for East/West to set North's nil. By bidding 4, South adds pressure to East/West and further ensures cover of his partner's nil.
The risk of bidding 4 is minimal. At worst case scenario, East/West double set North/South, leaving the score at 303 for North/South and 233 for East/West. Keep in mind East/West still have at least 7 bags. Even with the unlikely worst-case scenario, North/South still have control of the game and the risk of bidding 4 is, in my opinion, worth the possible reward.
Playing against stronger opponents, a bid of two is recommended. Stronger opponents will do the math and know that the only option is to the set the nil. A four bid by South will have no effect on East/West's play, thus the risk of being double set no longer outweighs the reward.
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